Three ways confidence can exceed the evidence

Confidence is useful when it reflects what you know. It helps you act without endlessly reopening settled questions. The problem is a mismatch between confidence and the evidence or performance that should support it.

Overconfidence means being more certain, more optimistic about your performance, or more favorable in a comparison than the evidence justifies. These are related but different patterns.

Separating them helps you choose the right check. Estimating how many questions you will answer correctly is different from estimating your rank among other people, and both differ from giving an unjustifiably narrow range for an uncertain quantity.