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Availability heuristic

Estimating likelihood by how easily examples come to mind.

Published 04 August 2026Updated 04 August 2026

The availability heuristic makes vivid, recent, emotional, or frequently repeated events feel more common than they are. Check actual frequencies and a representative time window before using ease of recall as evidence.

Sources

Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases

Science / 1974 / Paper

Classic heuristics and biases paper.