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Calibration

The match between confidence and actual accuracy.

Published 15 May 2026Updated 30 May 2026

Calibration improves when confidence is checked against outcomes. A well-calibrated thinker is not always certain; they are appropriately certain.

Sources

Debiasing and Calibration in Judgment

Kahneman, Slovic, Tversky (eds.) / 1982 / Paper

Calibration and confidence correction techniques.

Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes / 1987 / Paper

Overconfidence structure and practical implications.