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Extreme-case bias

Letting unusual or dramatic cases dominate judgment about what is typical.

Published 04 August 2026Updated 04 August 2026

Extreme-case bias occurs when memorable outliers are treated as representative of a population or normal outcome. The correction is to compare the extreme case with base rates and the full distribution of ordinary cases.

Sources

Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases

Science / 1974 / Paper

Classic heuristics and biases paper.