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Hindsight bias

Seeing an outcome as more predictable after learning that it occurred.

Published 04 August 2026Updated 04 August 2026

Hindsight bias makes past uncertainty disappear and creates the feeling that the result was obvious all along. Preserve forecasts and reasons before outcomes are known, then compare them with what actually happened.

Sources

Debiasing and Calibration in Judgment

Kahneman, Slovic, Tversky (eds.) / 1982 / Paper

Calibration and confidence correction techniques.