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Hot-hand fallacy

Inferring a persistent streak or changed success rate from a short cluster of successes.

Published 04 August 2026Updated 04 August 2026

The hot-hand fallacy treats a run of success as evidence that the next success has become more likely without first showing that the process changed. Compare the observed streak with ordinary random variation and with the person's longer-term baseline.

Sources

Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases

Science / 1974 / Paper

Classic heuristics and biases paper.