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Narrative convenience bias

Favoring a simple, coherent causal story over a messier explanation that better fits the evidence.

Published 04 August 2026Updated 04 August 2026

Narrative convenience bias makes an outcome feel explained because the account is memorable and complete-sounding. A good correction is to compare the story with base rates, alternative mechanisms, missing variables, and evidence that does not fit.

Sources

Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases

Science / 1974 / Paper

Classic heuristics and biases paper.