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Overconfidence

Having more confidence in a judgment, estimate, or ability than accuracy warrants.

Published 04 August 2026Updated 04 August 2026

Overconfidence can appear as overly narrow estimates, exaggerated certainty, or inflated beliefs about performance. Calibration improves by recording predictions, using ranges and probabilities, and comparing confidence with actual outcomes.

Sources

Forecasting Confidence and Overconfidence

Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes / 1987 / Paper

Overconfidence structure and practical implications.

Debiasing and Calibration in Judgment

Kahneman, Slovic, Tversky (eds.) / 1982 / Paper

Calibration and confidence correction techniques.