The Scout Mindset

Julia Galef contrasts defending a preferred belief with trying to find out what is true. The scout metaphor gives readers a way to examine their attachment to an answer. See the publisher's description for the book's scope. The exercise below is Nuxflo's own example of checking a belief before taking a side.

A disagreement about a study group

You think moving a study group from Saturday to Sunday will improve attendance. Your friend disagrees. You can collect reasons your proposal is sensible, but that will not answer the attendance question. Start by writing a prediction: “Across the next four meetings, average attendance will be higher on Sundays.” Then identify what you would need to compare, including invitations, exam dates, and whether the same people were available.

Before seeing any results, name evidence that would make you reconsider. For example, several regular members might have recurring Sunday commitments. Also name evidence that could change your friend's view. This keeps the discussion attached to a testable question instead of who first suggested the change.

Separate preference from prediction

Make two columns. Under preference, write “Sunday is more convenient for me.” Under prediction, write “Sunday will attract more members.” Both statements can be sincere while only one turns out to be true. You do not have to abandon your preference to acknowledge an inconvenient result.

If the first Sunday meeting has a large turnout, resist declaring victory. A guest speaker or a reminder sent that morning could explain the difference. Write a provisional update and keep the comparison going if doing so is practical. Four meetings still provide limited evidence, especially if the group is small.

A useful limit

Being open to revision does not require giving every claim equal weight. A well-supported conclusion can deserve high confidence, and a disagreement may be about values rather than facts. Choose this book for working with the emotional side of changing your mind. For recording numerical forecasts and checking them later, continue with Superforecasting.