Randomness, streaks, and useful forecasts

Uncertain events do not arrange themselves into a smooth pattern. A fair process can produce clusters, long gaps, and surprising runs. At the same time, not every apparent streak is random: conditions can change and outcomes can depend on one another.

Understanding randomness means avoiding both extremes. We should not invent a cause for every cluster, and we should not dismiss every pattern as noise. Forecasts help when they make clear predictions that can be reviewed across many cases.