Course description

Many useful answers remain uncertain. Probability helps us express that uncertainty clearly and revise it when new evidence arrives. This course introduces probabilities through counts and ordinary language. You will learn why the starting frequency matters, why a detector's success rate is not the same as the chance that an alert is correct, and how evidence changes an estimate. The final unit examines streaks, extreme results, and forecasts. Calculations are explained step by step; memorizing formulas is not a prerequisite.

Topics covered

• Probability, odds, and frequencies
• Base rates and misleading alerts
• Updating a belief with new evidence
• Randomness, streaks, and forecasts
• reasoning
• Beginner

Prerequisites and next steps

This course belongs to Reasoning Foundations. Start with the first step, then work through each level in order before moving back to the path.