Selected patterns, repeated claims, and past investment

A conclusion can become persuasive through familiarity or through a story built after the results are known. It can also become difficult to abandon when time and effort have already been spent.

This lesson explains the Texas sharpshooter fallacy, the multiple-comparisons problem, appeals to repetition, and the sunk-cost fallacy. Each requires a different check, but all can make confidence exceed the available support.