Slide 1 of 8
Introduction
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Reasoning often leaves us with an answer that is more or less likely, rather than completely certain. We may have enough information to make a decision without having enough to rule out every alternative.
The challenge is to express confidence honestly. Being too certain can hide a real gap in the evidence. Being endlessly doubtful can make useful information seem worthless.
A careful answer tells us both what someone thinks and how firmly the available reasons support it. This is a skill we can practice without turning every conversation into a calculation.